Methods and problems of tsunami hazard assessment of marine coasts
Abstract
The paper discusses methods and approaches used in Russia and abroad for mapping tsunami hazard on the coasts affected by tsunami waves that is for solving the problem of the preliminary tsunamizonation of the coast. This task consists in obtaining estimates of the tsunami heights on the coast with a given probability of exceedence during a certain time interval. Currently, this problem is being solved based on constructing seismotectonic models of the main tsunamigenic zones threatening a particular coast as well as numerical models of tsunami generation and propagation in the ocean with a real bathymetry to create a computed catalog of wave heights on the coast. The methodological commonality of this problem with the problem of seismic zonation of coastal territories is noted. The latter is solved now in all countries on the basis of the methodology of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment. A similar methodology for tsunamizonation is called Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment. With all known shortcomings of this technique, both fundamental and technical, it can and should be used for mapping of tsunami hazard on the coasts of Russia. The problems of rational choice of the scale of tsunami hazard maps, selection of a set of charted parameters, and the problem of estimating the maximum possible event are discussed.
About the Author
V. K. Gusiakov
Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SD RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Novosibirsk
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For citations:
Gusiakov V.K. Methods and problems of tsunami hazard assessment of marine coasts. Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics. 2017;10(3):26-38. (In Russ.)
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