Моделирование траектории и последствий разлива нефти у южного входа Суэцкого канала, Красное море, Египет

Суэцкий канал страдает от интенсивного морского судоходства, особенно нефтяных танкеров, из-за его стратегического положения между Средиземным и Красным морями. В результате он подвержен случайным разливам нефти, которые могут заблокировать морской путь через канал и нанести серьезный ущерб морской и прибрежной экосистемам. Это исследование направлено на прогнозирование траектории и последствий разливов нефти под влиянием различных ветровых режимов с использованием общей среды оперативного моделирования NOAA (GNOME) и моделей автоматизированного запроса данных для разливов нефти (ADIOS2) для определения потенциально пострадавших регионов. Таким образом, были смоделированы четыре сценария, предполагающие разлив 1000 метрических тонн аравийской легкой сырой нефти в морскую воду примерно в 2-х км от южного входа в Суэцкий канал. Результаты показывают, что направление ветра и морские течения существенно влияют на перемещение разливов нефти. Карты траектории показывают, что северо-западный ветер заставляет разлившуюся нефть двигаться в юго-восточном направлении, угрожая навигационному пути через Суэцкий канал и около 38 км пляжей к югу от канала, где есть несколько жизненно важных проектов, таких как Ayoun Mousse электростанция и много курортов. В случае северных ветров нефть перемещалась на юг в центр залива, что может дать группам реагирования больше времени для ликвидации разлива. Однако в случае северо-восточных ветров нефть дрейфовала на юго-запад и угрожала острову Зеленый и западным берегам залива, где расположено множество туристических поселков. Около четверти нефти испарилось, и более двух третей нефти эмульгировалось во всех четырех сценариях. Это исследование впервые дало представление о прогнозировании разливов нефти и моделировании траектории разлива на южном входе в Суэцкий канал. Кроме того, его можно рассматривать как инструмент прогнозирования для политиков Египта и Управления Суэцкого канала (SCA) для разработки адекватных и практических стратегий по смягчению последствий разливов сырой нефти. 

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