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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">hydrophysics</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Фундаментальная и прикладная гидрофизика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2073-6673</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2782-5221</issn><publisher><publisher-name>St. Petersburg Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.59887/2073-6673.2025.19(1)-5</article-id><article-id custom-type="edn" pub-id-type="custom">oypwpn</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">hydrophysics-1517</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ГИДРОФИЗИЧЕСКИЕ И БИОГЕОХИМИЧЕСКИЕ ПОЛЯ И ПРОЦЕССЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>HYDROPHYSICAL AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL FIELDS AND PROCESSES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Прогноз максимальной высоты ветровых волн на основе спектра плотности волновой энергии с помощью фазо-разрешающей модели и машинного обучения</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Forecasting maximum wind wave height from wave spectra using phase-resolving model and machine learning</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7971-7601</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Бухарев</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bukharev</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>БУХАРЕВ Антон Андреевич, младший научный сотрудник</p><p>117997, Москва, Нахимовский проспект, д. 36</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Anton A. BUKHAREV, Junior Researcher</p><p>36 Nakhimovsky Prosp., Moscow, 117997</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">anton.bukharev@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8779-965X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Булгаков</surname><given-names>К. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bulgakov</surname><given-names>K. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>БУЛГАКОВ Кирилл Юрьевич, кандидат физико-математических наук, старший научный сотрудник</p><p>117997, Москва, Нахимовский проспект, д. 36</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Kirill Yu. BULGAKOV, Cand.Sc. (Phys.-Math.), Senior Researcher</p><p>36 Nakhimovsky Prosp., Moscow, 117997</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">bulgakov.kirill@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1826-0452</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Фокина</surname><given-names>К. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Fokina</surname><given-names>K. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>ФОКИНА Карина Владимировна, кандидат физико-математических наук, младший научный сотрудник</p><p>117997, Москва, Нахимовский проспект, д. 36</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Karina V. FOKINA, Cand.Sc. (Phys.-Math.), Researcher</p><p>36 Nakhimovsky Prosp., Moscow, 117997</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">fokinakarina@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт океанологии им П.П. Ширшова РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>03</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>19</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>59</fpage><lpage>70</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Бухарев A.A., Булгаков К.Ю., Фокина К.В., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Бухарев A.A., Булгаков К.Ю., Фокина К.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Bukharev A.A., Bulgakov K.Y., Fokina K.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://hydrophysics.spbrc.ru/jour/article/view/1517">https://hydrophysics.spbrc.ru/jour/article/view/1517</self-uri><abstract><p>Предлагается комбинированная методика для оперативного прогноза максимальной высоты волны, которая объединяет преимущества спектральных, фазо-разрешающих моделей и машинного обучения, преодолевая некоторые ограничения, связанные с ресурсоемкими вычислениями прямого численного моделирования. Методика использует частотно-угловой спектр из модели WAVEWATCH III, преобразует его в поле волновых чисел и передает в качестве начальных условий в фазо-разрешающую модель TRIDWAVE для генерации нелинейного волнового поля и расчета искомой экстремальной характеристики. Чтобы избежать вычислительной затратности этого этапа при каждом прогнозе, разработана полносвязная нейронная сеть, которая обучается аппроксимировать результаты модели TRIDWAVE на основе пар «угловой волновой спектр — максимальная высота волны». Эксперименты, проведенные для акватории Балтийского моря, показали, что обученная сеть предсказывает максимальную высоту волны со средней относительной ошибкой около 5 %, демонстрируя способность восстанавливать нелинейную статистику по линейному спектру.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The paper presents a combined methodology for the operational forecasting of maximum wave height, integrating the strengths of spectral wave models, phase-resolving simulations, and machine learning to address the core limitations inherent in each approach. The procedure begins with a frequency-directional wave spectrum obtained from the WAVEWATCH III model, which is subsequently transformed into a wavenumber field and used as initial conditions for the phase-resolving model TRIDWAVE. This step enables the generation of a realistic nonlinear wave field from which the target extreme parameter (maximum wave height) is extracted. To circumvent the prohibitive computational cost associated with repeatedly executing the phase-resolving model, a feedforward neural network was developed and trained to act as a fast surrogate, learning the mapping from input wave spectra to the corresponding maximum height values as calculated by TRIDWAVE. Validation experiments conducted for the Baltic Sea demonstrate that the trained network predicts maximum wave height with an average relative error of approximately 5 %. This result confirms the network’s capability to accurately infer key nonlinear statistics directly from linear spectral input.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>максимальная высота волны</kwd><kwd>прогноз волн</kwd><kwd>фазо-разрешающее моделирование</kwd><kwd>машинное обучение</kwd><kwd>нейронные сети</kwd><kwd>WAVEWATCH III</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>maximum wave height</kwd><kwd>wave forecasting</kwd><kwd>phase-resolving modeling</kwd><kwd>machine learning</kwd><kwd>neural networks</kwd><kwd>WAVEWATCH III</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Работа выполнена в рамках государственного задания Минобрнауки России для ИО РАН (тема № FMWE‑2024-0028).</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The research was carried out within the state assignment of Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation for IO RAS (theme No. FMWE‑2024-0028).</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Tolman H.L. 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