hydrophysicsФундаментальная и прикладная гидрофизикаFundamental and Applied Hydrophysics2073-66732782-5221St. Petersburg Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences10.59887/2073-6673.2023.16(4)-5hydrophysics-1258Research ArticleГИДРОФИЗИЧЕСКИЕ И БИОГЕОХИМИЧЕСКИЕ ПОЛЯ И ПРОЦЕССЫHYDROPHYSICAL AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL FIELDS AND PROCESSESДинамика подкисления Северного Ледовитого океана в 1993–2021 гг. и ее прогноз на конец 21-го векаArctic Ocean acidification dynamics during 1993–2021 and its projections for the rest of this centuryhttps://orcid.org/0009-0000-1225-9579МалышеваА. С.MalyshevaA. S.

 

199034, Санкт-Петербург, 14-я Линия В.О., д. 7

199034, Санкт-Петербург, Университетская наб., д. 7–9

MALYSHEVA, Aleksandra S.

РИНЦ AuthorID: 1120098

WoS ResearcherID HPE-0124-2023

7 14th Line V.O., St. Petersburg, 199034

7–9 Universitetskaya Emb., St. Petersburg, 199034

alexandra.malysheva@niersc.spb.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8290-5043РадченкоЮ. В.RadchenkoI. V.

199034, Санкт-Петербург, 14-я Линия В.О., д. 7

RADCHENKO, Iuliia V., Cand.Sc. (Agriculture)

РИНЦ AuthorID: 1064639

Scopus AuthorID: 56480302400, WoS ResearcherID AAF-4852-2019

7 14th Line V.O., St. Petersburg, 199034

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0889-7855ПоздняковД. В.PozdnyakovD. V.

 

199034, Санкт-Петербург, 14-я Линия В.О., д. 7

199034, Санкт-Петербург, Университетская наб., д. 7–9

185910, Петрозаводск, ул. Пушкинская, д. 11

POZDNYAKOV, Dmitry V., Dr. Sc. (Phys.-Math.)

РИНЦ AuthorID: 179336

Scopus AuthorID: 56370460300

7 14th Line V.O., St. Petersburg, 199034

 7–9 Universitetskaya Emb., St. Petersburg, 199034

11 Pushkinskaya Str., Petrozavodsk, 185910

Научный фонд «Международный центр по окружающей среде и дистанционному зондированию имени Нансена»; Санкт-Петербургский государственный университетРоссияNansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre; St. Petersburg State UniversityRussian FederationНаучный фонд «Международный центр по окружающей среде и дистанционному зондированию имени Нансена»РоссияNansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing CentreRussian FederationНаучный фонд «Международный центр по окружающей среде и дистанционному зондированию имени Нансена»; Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет; Карельский научный центр Российской академии наукРоссияNansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre; St. Petersburg State University; Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation20230901202416463–74Copyright © Малышева А.С., Радченко Ю.В., Поздняков Д.В., 20242024Малышева А.С., Радченко Ю.В., Поздняков Д.В.Malysheva A.S., Radchenko I.V., Pozdnyakov D.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://hydrophysics.spbrc.ru/jour/article/view/1258

С использованием данных GLODAP v.2021 и реанализа Global Ocean Biogeochremistry Hidcast GOBH по параметру рН проведены численные оценки динамики подкисления вод Арктического региона (60–90° с.ш.) за период 1993– 2021 гг. и выявлены тенденции подкисления океана (ПО) в свете проекций климата Арктики до конца 2100 года. Будущие тенденции ПО были рассчитаны по моделям CMIP6 для четырех сценариев Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), в которых представлены разные уровни социально-экономического и сельскохозяйственного развития и эмиссии парниковых газов: SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 и SSP5–8.5.

Тенденции снижения рН, определенные по in situ данным GLODAP за период 1993–2019 гг. и по данным реанализа за 1993–2021 гг., составили, соответственно: –0,9% (от 8,18–8,11) и –0,7% (от 8,10–8,05). Таким образом, годовая скорость подкисления, оцененная по обоим источникам данных, составила –0,03%.

На основе метода перцентилей сравнены исторические сценарии pH моделей CMIP6 с данными реанализа, и на этой базе установлены четыре лучшие модели: MPI-ESM1–2-LR, NorESM2-MM, NorESM2-LM и CMCC-ESM2. Результаты прогнозирования указывают на то, что подкисление вод Арктики будет продолжаться до конца этого столетия. Наибольшие темпы снижения рН (–4,9% и –6,2%) соответствуют сценариям SSP3–7.0 и SSP5–8.5, предполагающих повышение средней глобальной температуры на 3,6 °C и 4,4 °C соответственно. Сопоставление полученных результатов с численными оценками динамики рН других авторов свидетельствует, что к концу текущего столетия скорость подкисления (т. е. снижения рН) в Арктике следует ожидать выше, чем в среднем по Мировому океану: разница между каждым из SSP сценариев оказалась равной –0,1.

Dynamics of acidification of the Arctic Ocean through 1993–2021 and predictions of further tendencies of this process until the end of 2100 were assessed making use of both the GLODAPv.2021 and the Global Ocean Biogeochremistry Hindcast (GOBH) reanalysis data on pH. The projections of pH were performed by CMIP6 models for four scenarios of rates of socio-economic and agricultural development and emissions of greenhouse gases: SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5.

The tendencies of pH decline over the last 27 years (1993–2019) as determined from the GLODAP in situ and the reanalysis data over 1993–2021 proved to be, respectively –0.9% (from 8.18–8.11) and –0.7% (from 8.10–8.05). Thus, the annual acidification rate as assessed from both data sources proved to be –0.03%.

Through the percentile method-based comparison of consistency of historical observation data on pH with GBH model hindcast four best models were identified: MPI-ESM1–2-LR, NorESM2-MM, NorESM2-LM, and CMCC-ESM2. The projection results strongly indicate that the Arctic Ocean acidification will continue till the end of this century. The highest rates of pH decrease (–4.9% and –6.2%) were forecasted, respectively, for scenarios SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 that implied the global mean temperature increases by 3.6 °C and 4.4 °C, respectively. A comparison of the results obtained with the previously made assessments is indicative that by the end of the current century the rate of acidification (i. e. pH decrease) in the Arctic should be expected to be higher than that averaged over the World Oceans: the difference for each of the SSP scenarios proved to be –0.1.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.