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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">hydrophysics</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Фундаментальная и прикладная гидрофизика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Fundamental and Applied Hydrophysics</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2073-6673</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2782-5221</issn><publisher><publisher-name>St. Petersburg Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.59887/fpg/hg4a-1ht8-db7d</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">hydrophysics-1201</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ГИДРОФИЗИЧЕСКИЕ И БИОГЕОХИМИЧЕСКИЕ ПОЛЯ И ПРОЦЕССЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>HYDROPHYSICAL AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL FIELDS AND PROCESSES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Моделирование траектории и последствий разлива нефти у южного входа Суэцкого канала, Красное море, Египет</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Simulation of Oil Spill Trajectory and Fate at the Southern Entrance of the Suez Canal, Red Sea, Egypt</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3342-6265</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Абдаллах</surname><given-names>И. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Abdallah</surname><given-names>I. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>192007, Санкт-Петербург, Воронежская ул., 79</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>ABDALLAH Ibrahem Mohamed</p><p>Scopus Author ID: 57772795500,</p><p>WoS ResearcherID: HNC-5408-2023</p><p>192007, Voronezhskaya ul., 79, St. Petersburg</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">abd_elmoaty@stud.rshu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8020-9354</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Чанцев</surname><given-names>В. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Chantsev</surname><given-names>V. Y.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>192007, Санкт-Петербург, Воронежская ул., 79</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>CHANTSEV Valery Yurievich</p><p>РИНЦ Author ID: 155995</p><p>Scopus Author ID: 55781928400, WoS ResearcherID: H-8378-2017</p><p>192007, Voronezhskaya ul., 79, St. Petersburg, Russia</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">val@rshu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Российский государственный гидрометеорологический университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Russian State Hydrometeorological University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>23</day><month>04</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>16</volume><issue>1</issue><elocation-id>63–79</elocation-id><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Абдаллах И.М., Чанцев В.Ю., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Абдаллах И.М., Чанцев В.Ю.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Abdallah I.M., Chantsev V.Y.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://hydrophysics.spbrc.ru/jour/article/view/1201">https://hydrophysics.spbrc.ru/jour/article/view/1201</self-uri><abstract><p>Суэцкий канал страдает от интенсивного морского судоходства, особенно нефтяных танкеров, из-за его стратегического положения между Средиземным и Красным морями. В результате он подвержен случайным разливам нефти, которые могут заблокировать морской путь через канал и нанести серьезный ущерб морской и прибрежной экосистемам. Это исследование направлено на прогнозирование траектории и последствий разливов нефти под влиянием различных ветровых режимов с использованием общей среды оперативного моделирования NOAA (GNOME) и моделей автоматизированного запроса данных для разливов нефти (ADIOS2) для определения потенциально пострадавших регионов. Таким образом, были смоделированы четыре сценария, предполагающие разлив 1000 метрических тонн аравийской легкой сырой нефти в морскую воду примерно в 2-х км от южного входа в Суэцкий канал. Результаты показывают, что направление ветра и морские течения существенно влияют на перемещение разливов нефти. Карты траектории показывают, что северо-западный ветер заставляет разлившуюся нефть двигаться в юго-восточном направлении, угрожая навигационному пути через Суэцкий канал и около 38 км пляжей к югу от канала, где есть несколько жизненно важных проектов, таких как Ayoun Mousse электростанция и много курортов. В случае северных ветров нефть перемещалась на юг в центр залива, что может дать группам реагирования больше времени для ликвидации разлива. Однако в случае северо-восточных ветров нефть дрейфовала на юго-запад и угрожала острову Зеленый и западным берегам залива, где расположено множество туристических поселков. Около четверти нефти испарилось, и более двух третей нефти эмульгировалось во всех четырех сценариях. Это исследование впервые дало представление о прогнозировании разливов нефти и моделировании траектории разлива на южном входе в Суэцкий канал. Кроме того, его можно рассматривать как инструмент прогнозирования для политиков Египта и Управления Суэцкого канала (SCA) для разработки адекватных и практических стратегий по смягчению последствий разливов сырой нефти. </p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The Suez Canal suffers from heavy maritime traffic, especially oil tankers, due to its strategic location between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. As a result, it is prone to accidental oil spills, which might obstruct the maritime lane via the canal and severely harm the marine and coastal ecosystems. This study aims to forecast an oil spill trajectory and fate under the influence of different wind regimes using the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) and the Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills (ADIOS2) models to define the potentially affected regions. Hence, four scenarios were simulated, assuming a spill of one thousand metric tons of Arabian light crude oil into the seawater about two kilometers from the Suez Canal’s southern entrance. The results highlight that wind direction and sea currents substantially affect the movement of oil spills. The trajectory maps show that the north-west wind forces the spilled oil to move toward the southeast direction, threatening the navigation lane through the Suez Canal and about 38 km of beaches south of the canal, which has several vital projects such as the Ayoun Mousse power plant and a lot of resorts. In the case of northern winds, the oil moved south in the center of the Gulf, which may allow response teams more time to clean up the spill. However, in the case of north-east winds, the oil drifted southwesterly and threatened the Green Island and western shores of the Gulf, which has many tourist villages. About a quarter of the oil evaporated, and more than two-thirds of the oil emulsified in all four scenarios. For the first time, this study has provided an understanding of oil spill forecasting and trajectory modeling for the Suez Canal’s southern entrance. Also, it can be considered a prediction tool for Egypt’s policymakers and Suez Canal Authority (SCA) to develop adequate and practical strategies to mitigate crude oil spill consequences.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>разлив нефти</kwd><kwd>моделирование</kwd><kwd>сценарии</kwd><kwd>GNOME</kwd><kwd>ADIOS</kwd><kwd>Суэцкий канал</kwd><kwd>Суэцкий залив</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Oil spill</kwd><kwd>Modeling</kwd><kwd>Scenarios</kwd><kwd>GNOME</kwd><kwd>ADIOS</kwd><kwd>Suez Canal</kwd><kwd>Gulf of Suez</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="en">Ibrahem M. 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